Arbeitspapier
Interest rate effects of demographic changes in a New-Keynesian life-cycle framework
This paper develops a small-scale DSGE model which embeds a demographic structure within a monetary policy framework. We extend the tractable, though non-monetary overlapping-generations model of Gertler (1999) and present a small synthesis model which combines the set-up of Gertler with a New-Keynesian structure, implying that the short-run dynamics related to monetary policy are similar to the paradigm summarized in Woodford (2003). In sum, the model offers a New-Keynesian platform which can be used to investigate in a closed economy set-up the response of macroeconomic variables to demographic shocks, similar to technology, government spending or monetary policy shocks. Empirically, we use a calibrated version of the model to discuss a number of macroeconomic scenarios for the euro area with a horizon of around 20 years. The main finding is that demographic changes, while contributing slowly over time to a decline in the equilibrium interest rate, are not visible enough within the time horizon relevant for monetary policy-making to require monetary policy reactions.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1273
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General
Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- Thema
-
Demographic change
DSGE modelling
monetary policy
Bevölkerungsentwicklung
Geldpolitik
Dynamisches Gleichgewicht
Overlapping Generations
Szenariotechnik
Eurozone
EU-Staaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Kara, Engin
von Thadden, Leopold
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2010
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Kara, Engin
- von Thadden, Leopold
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2010