Arbeitspapier

Empirical studies in a multivariate non-stationary, nonparametric regression model for financial returns

In this paper we analyze a multivariate non-stationary regression model empirically. With the knowledge about unconditional heteroscedasticty of financial returns, based on univariate studies and a congruent paradigm in Gürtler and Rauh (2009), we test for a time-varying covariance structure firstly. Based on these results, a central component of our non-stationary model is a kernel regression for pairwise covariances and the covariance matrix. Residual terms are fitted with an asymmetric Pearson type VII distribution. In an extensive study we estimate the linear dependence of a broad portfolio of equities and fixed income securities (including credit and currency risks) and fit the whole approach to provide distributional forecasts. Our evaluations verify a reasonable approximation and a satisfactory forecasting quality with an out performance against a traditional risk model.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Paper Series ; No. IF43V1

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Thema
heteroscedasticity
non-stationarity
nonparametric regression
volatility
covariance matrix
innovation modeling
asymmetric heavy-tails
multivariate distributional forecast
empirical studies

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Gürtler, Marc
Rauh, Ronald
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institut für Finanzwirtschaft
(wo)
Braunschweig
(wann)
2013

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Gürtler, Marc
  • Rauh, Ronald
  • Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institut für Finanzwirtschaft

Entstanden

  • 2013

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