Cross-border lending and the international transmission of banking crises

Arbeitspapier

This paper introduces a new transmission channel of banking crises where sizable cross-border bank claims on foreign countries with high domestic crisis risk enable contagion to the home economy. This asset-side channel opposes traditional views that see banking crises originating from either domestic credit booms or from cross-border borrowing. I propose a combined model that predicts banking crises using both domestic and foreign factors. For developed economies, the channel is predictive of crises irrespective of other types of capital ows, while it is entirely inactive for emerging economies. I show that policy makers can significantly enhance current early warning models by incorporating exposure-based risk from cross-border lending.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 2020/13

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; International Lending and Debt Problems ; Financial Crises ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
• Thema: cross-border bank lending ; banking crises ; systemic risk ; financial linkages

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Dieckelmann, Daniel
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics
• (wo): Berlin
• (wann): 2020

Weitere Informationen

• DOI: doi:10.17169/refubium-27524
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/222288
• URN: urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-refubium-27771-8
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ