Do Business-related Services Really Lag Behind Manufacturing Industries in the Business Cycle? Empirical Evidence on the Lead/Lag Relationship Between Business-related Services and Manufacturing Industries for Germany

Arbeitspapier

In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to increased outsourcing activities of the manufacturing sector. In this paper it is shown that the relationship is not as simple as it appears at first sight. We run Granger causality tests between sales growth rates of the business-related service sector against growth rates of various series of the manufacturing sector. It turns out that the relationship between business-related services and manufacturing is either contemporaneous or bi-directional, while no evidence is given for manufacturing leading business-related services.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ZEW Discussion Papers ; No. 99-34

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Thema: business cycle ; Granger causality ; business-related services ; Unternehmensdienstleistung ; Konjunktur ; Industriekonjunktur ; Schätzung ; Deutschland

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Kaiser, Ulrich ; Voß, Katrin
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
• (wo): Mannheim
• (wann): 1999

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/24345
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ