Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

Arbeitspapier

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1015

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
• Thema: Fiscal Policy ; Inflation forecasting ; information content of money ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; new EU member states ; Inflation ; Geldmenge ; Prognoseverfahren ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Monetärer Indikator ; EU-Mitgliedschaft

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Arratibel, Olga ; Kamps, Christophe ; Leiner-Killinger, Nadine
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2009

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153449
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ