Population aging in healthcare - a minor issue? Evidence from Switzerland

Arbeitspapier

Our study shows that population aging substantially affects healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming population aging will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the determinants of Swiss healthcare expenditure (HCE) with outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by improving the health status of the population and by stimulating cost-effective and productive medical advances.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: FiFo Discussion Paper ; No. 16-3

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; National Government Expenditures and Health ; Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
• Subject: healthcare expenditure ; population ageing ; fiscal sustainability ; advances in medical technology ; robust MM estimator ; long-term projections ; bootstrap simulations ; Gesundheitsausgaben ; Alterung ; finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit ; medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt ; robuster MM Schätzer ; langfristige Ausgabenprojektionen ; Bootstrapsimulationen

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Colombier, Carsten
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Finanzwissenschaftliches Forschungsinstitut an der Universität zu Köln (FiFo Köln)
• (where): Köln
• (when): 2016

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/130160
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET