The new Keynesian Phillips curve: Does it fit Norwegian data?

Arbeitspapier

We evaluate the empirical performance of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for a small open economy using cointegrated vector autoregressive models, likelihood based methods and general method of moments. Our results indicate that both baseline and hybrid versions of the NKPC as well as exact and inexact formulations of the rational expectation hypothesis are most likely at odds with Norwegian data. By way of contrast, we establish a well-specified dynamic backward-looking imperfect competition model (ICM), a model which encompasses the NKPC in-sample with a major monetary policy regime shift from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. We also demonstrate that the ICM model forecasts well both post-sample and during the recent financial crisis. Our findings suggest that taking account of forward-looking behaviour when modelling consumer price inflation is unnecessary to arrive at a well-specified model by econometric criteria.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Discussion Papers ; No. 652

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Model Construction and Estimation ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Foreign Exchange
• Subject: The new Keynesian Phillips curve ; imperfect competition model ; cointegrated vector autoregressive models (CVAR) ; equilibrium correction models ; likelihood based methods and general method of moments (GMM).

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Boug, Pål ; Cappelen, Ådne ; Swensen, Anders R.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Statistics Norway, Research Department
• (where): Oslo
• (when): 2011

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/192634
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET