Informal employment from migration shocks

Arbeitspapier

We propose a new approach to detect and quantify informal employment resulting from irregular migration shocks. Focusing on a largely informal sector, agriculture, and on the exogenous variation from the Arab Spring wave on southern Italian coasts, we use machine-learning techniques to document abnormal increases in reported (vs. predicted) labor productivity on vineyards hit by the shock. Misreporting is largely heterogeneous across farms depending e.g. on size and grape quality. The shock resulted in a 6% increase in informal employment, equivalent to one undeclared worker for every three farms on average and 23,000 workers in total over 2011-2012. Misreporting causes significant increases in farm profits through lower labor costs, while having no impact on grape sales, prices, or wages of formal wor

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Papers in Economics and Statistics ; No. 2023-09

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; International Migration ; Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers ; Agricultural Labor Markets ; Informal Labor Markets ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
• Thema: Informal employment ; Migration shocks ; Farm labor ; Machine learning

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Valente, Marica ; Gries, Timm ; Trapani, Lorenzo
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): University of Innsbruck, Research Platform Empirical and Experimental Economics (eeecon)
• (wo): Innsbruck
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/278556
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ