Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication

Konferenzbeitrag

Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We observe that 50\% of consumers have expectations consistent with the Income Fisher equation, 46\% with the Taylor rule and 34\% with the Phillips curve. For the Taylor rule and the Phillips curve we observe less consistency during recessions and with high inflation. Moreover, changes in the communication policy of the Fed affect consistency. The strongest positive effect comes from the introduction of the official inflation target. Finally, consumers with theory-consistent expectations have lower absolute inflation forecast errors.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2015: Ökonomische Entwicklung - Theorie und Politik - Session: Expectations and uncertainty ; No. G03-V1

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Monetary Policy ; Expectations; Speculations ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Lamla, Michael ; Dräger, Lena ; Pfajfar, Damjan
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/113170
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ