Inflation persistence in structural macroeconomic models (RG10)

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyses the response of inflation in the euro area to five macroeconomic shocks through the use of results derived from Eurosystem large-scale macroeconomic models. The main finding is that only a fiscal shock, and to a lesser extent a TFP shock, generate marked inflation persistence. In contrast, an indirect tax and an oil price shock appear much less persistent and a social security shock generates less inflation persistence in the majority of the countries (although some weak persistence was observed at the euro area level). The paper also considers evidence on the sources of persistence, which indicates that it is crucially affected by the responsiveness of wages to employment, by the sluggishness in the adjustments of the demand components, and by the speed of adjustment of employment to output and wage changes.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 521

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Monetary Policy
• Thema: impulse response function ; Inflation persistence ; large-scale macroeconomic models ; Inflation ; Schock ; Makroökonometrie ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten ; Wirkungsanalyse

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Berben, Robert-Paul ; Mestre, Ricardo ; Mitrakos, Theodoros ; Morgan, Julian ; Zonzilos, Nikolaos G.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2005

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152955
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ