Arbeitspapier
Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin
This paper shows that there are two regularities in foreign exchange markets in advanced countries with flexible regimes. First, real exchange rates are mean-reverting, as implied by the Purchasing Power Parity model. Second, the adjustment takes place via nominal exchange rates. These features of the data can be exploited, even on the back of a napkin, to generate nominal exchange rate forecasts that outperform the random walk. The secret is to avoid estimating the pace of mean reversion and assume that relative prices are unchanged. Direct forecasting or panel data techniques are better than the random walk but fail to beat this simple calibrated model.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-3256-1
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2151
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Foreign Exchange
International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Open Economy Macroeconomics
- Thema
-
exchange rates
forecasting
Purchasing Power Parity
panel data
mean reversion
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ca' Zorzi, Michele
Rubaszek, Michał
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2018
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/204062
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ca' Zorzi, Michele
- Rubaszek, Michał
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2018
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