Arbeitspapier

Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: A micro approach for 27 EU countries

The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes a key shortcoming of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: EUROMOD Working Paper ; No. EM1/16

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
Thema
Demographic Change
Fiscal Effects
Labor Supply
Labor Demand
Pension Systems

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Dolls, Mathias
Doorley, Karina
Paulus, Alari
Schneider, Hilmar
Siegloch, Sebastian
Sommer, Eric
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)
(wo)
Colchester
(wann)
2016

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Dolls, Mathias
  • Doorley, Karina
  • Paulus, Alari
  • Schneider, Hilmar
  • Siegloch, Sebastian
  • Sommer, Eric
  • University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)

Entstanden

  • 2016

Ähnliche Objekte (12)