Arbeitspapier
Lone (loan) wolf pack risk
This paper proposes an early-warning bank risk measure based on the syndicate concentration of recent syndicated loans that a bank participates in. At the bank level, higher values of the measure predict greater risks (i.e., loan loss provisions, idiosyncratic return volatility, default probability, and frequency of lawsuits) and lower profitability at least three years ahead, especially for opaque and complex banks. Banks failing the Federal Reserve's forward-looking stress tests subsequently exhibit a reduction in the syndicate concentration measure. At the aggregate level, higher values of the measure predict both greater financial sector risks and economic slowdowns measured by private-sector investment, business activity, total factor productivity, industrial production, and gross domestic product.
- ISBN
-
978-952-323-433-8
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 4/2023
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Institutions and the Macroeconomy
- Thema
-
syndicate concentration
early-warning
bank risks
financial sector risks
economic slowdowns
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Gao, Mingze
Hasan, Iftekhar
Qiu, Buhui
Wu, Eliza
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Finland
- (wo)
-
Helsinki
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Gao, Mingze
- Hasan, Iftekhar
- Qiu, Buhui
- Wu, Eliza
- Bank of Finland
Entstanden
- 2023
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