Arbeitspapier
Do decision makers have subjective probabilities? An experimental test
Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition - which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability - presumes that the subjective probability of an event is independent of the prize consequences of that event, a property we term Prize Independence. We design experiments to test Prize Independence and find that a large fraction of our subjects violate it; thus, they do not have subjective probabilities. These findings raise questions about the empirical relevance of much of the literature on subjective probability.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Working Paper ; No. 940
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Expectations; Speculations
- Subject
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subjective probability
choice under uncertainty
online experiments
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Ronayne, David
Veneziani, Roberto
Zame, William R.
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance
- (where)
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London
- (when)
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2022
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Ronayne, David
- Veneziani, Roberto
- Zame, William R.
- Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance
Time of origin
- 2022
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