Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Arbeitspapier

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 5538

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
• Subject: climate change ; integrated assessment models

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Gillingham, Kenneth ; Nordhaus, William ; Anthoff, David ; Blanford, Geoffrey ; Bosetti, Valentina ; Christensen, Peter ; McJeon, Haewon ; Reilly, John ; Sztorc, Paul
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2015

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/123168
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET