'Google it!' Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index

Arbeitspapier

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ISER Working Paper Series ; No. 2009-32

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): D'Amuri, Francesco ; Marcucci, Juri
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Essex, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)
• (where): Colchester
• (when): 2009

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/92170
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET