Arbeitspapier
The Output Gap and Its Role in Inflation-Targeting in the Philippines
The output gap is the difference between the economys actual output and potential output, with the latter being the level of production consistent with existing labor, capital and technology. There are several key issues surrounding the output gap in the context of inflation-targeting. One is whether the central bank should consider the output gap in addition to the inflation target in setting monetary policy. However, this is not addressed in the present paper. Another issue is the appropriate technique to estimate the output gap of which there are three broad groups: the atheoretical or time series approach, the structural approach, and the mixed or multivariate approach. Even if the output gap can be estimated within an acceptable degree of precision, it has to be determined empirically whether it should be included in an inflation-forecasting model. Applying quarterly Philippine GDP data, three estimates of the output gap were obtained from (i) a linear time trend model, (ii) an application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and (iii) an unobserved components mode. All three measures add significant explanatory power to an inflation equation that is specified in Error Correction form.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: PIDS Discussion Paper Series ; No. 2003-10
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Error Correction Model
inflation targeting
output gap
Hodrick-Prescott filter
Kalman filter
Bruttoinlandsprodukt
Nationaleinkommen
Produktionspotenzial
Inflationssteuerung
Philippinen
Kointegration
Zustandsraummodell
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Yap, Josef T.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS)
- (wo)
-
Makati City
- (wann)
-
2003
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Yap, Josef T.
- Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS)
Entstanden
- 2003
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap
Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Output Gap
Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
Potential output, output gap and high inflation in Argentina (2007-2015)
Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation
The inflation-output trade-off revisited
Model Estimates of the Output Gap
Inflation and output in Germany: The role of inflation expectations
Dismiss the gap? A real-time assessment of the usefulness of Canadian output gaps in forecasting inflation
The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates
Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap
Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Output Gap
Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
Potential output, output gap and high inflation in Argentina (2007-2015)
Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation
The inflation-output trade-off revisited
Model Estimates of the Output Gap
Inflation and output in Germany: The role of inflation expectations
Dismiss the gap? A real-time assessment of the usefulness of Canadian output gaps in forecasting inflation
The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates
Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap
Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Output Gap
Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
Potential output, output gap and high inflation in Argentina (2007-2015)
Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation
The inflation-output trade-off revisited
Model Estimates of the Output Gap
Inflation and output in Germany: The role of inflation expectations
Dismiss the gap? A real-time assessment of the usefulness of Canadian output gaps in forecasting inflation