Artikel
Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets
This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, oil price, and EMBI in Turkey. To this end, the paper first conducts unit root tests in order to detect the order of integration of the variables. Then, the paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine whether there is a cointegration relationship among variables and to estimate long-run parameters. According to the findings, 12-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, and oil price and is negatively related to EMBI. Besides, 24-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate and USD/TL exchange rate and is negatively related to inflation target and EMBI. Upon its findings, the paper makes some inferences about the success of inflation targeting strategy in Turkey.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ; ISSN: 2336-9205 ; Volume: 7 ; Year: 2018 ; Issue: 3 ; Pages: 73-90 ; Warsaw: De Gruyter Open
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Subject
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the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
inflation targeting
inflation expectations
decision makers and experts
autoregressive distributed lag approach.
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Bulut, Umit
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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De Gruyter Open
- (where)
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Warsaw
- (when)
-
2018
- DOI
-
doi:10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0024
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Bulut, Umit
- De Gruyter Open
Time of origin
- 2018
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