An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint

Abstract ∘ C, i.e., in the upper range of the CMIP6 estimates, and is almost entirely human-induced. A refined view of the seasonality of this past warming is provided through updated daily climate normals. Projected warming in response to an intermediate emission scenario is assessed to be 3.8 ∘ C (2.9 to 4.8 ∘ C) in 2100 and rises up to 6.7 [5.2 to 8.2] ∘ C in a very high emission scenario, i.e., substantially higher than in previous ensembles of global and regional simulations. Winter warming and summer warming are expected to be about 15 % lower than and 30 % higher than the annual mean warming, respectively, for all scenarios and time periods. This work highlights the importance of combining various lines of evidence, including model and observed data, to deliver the most reliable climate information. This refined regional assessment can feed adaptation planning for a range of activities and provides additional rationale for urgent climate action. Code is made available to facilitate replication over other areas or political entities.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint ; volume:13 ; number:4 ; year:2022 ; pages:1397-1415 ; extent:19 ; Earth System Dynamics ; 13, Heft 4 (2022), 1397-1415 (gesamt 19)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Ribes, Aurélien ; Boé, Julien ; Qasmi, Saïd ; Dubuisson, Brigitte ; Douville, Hervé ; Terray, Laurent

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022100605212376081347
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:27 AM CEST