Arbeitspapier

Optimal Epidemic Suppression under an ICU Constraint

How much and when should we limit economic and social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting economic interaction). Providing a fully analytical solution we show that the common wisdom of “flattening the curve”, where suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal suppression is discountinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU constraint is approaching society should quickly lock down (a discontinuity). After the lockdown regulation should gradually be lifted, holding the rate of infected constant thus respecting the ICU resources while not unnecessarily limiting economic activity. In a final phase, regulation is lifted. We call this strategy “filling the box”.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8290

Classification
Wirtschaft
Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
Welfare Economics: General
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Subject
Covid-19
corona
epidemic
pandemic
suppression
control optimality
health
infection.

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Miclo, Laurent
Spiro, Daniel
Weibull, Jörgen
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
(where)
Munich
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.

Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Miclo, Laurent
  • Spiro, Daniel
  • Weibull, Jörgen
  • Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

  • 2020

Other Objects (12)