Arbeitspapier
On the optimal "lockdown" during an epidemic
We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy re- ects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as currently expe- rienced by the US optimally triggers a reduction in economic activity by two thirds, for about 50 days, or approximately 9:5 percent of annual GDP.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Papers ; No. 20-08
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- Thema
-
Epidemic
pandemic
lockdown
social distancing
production shortfall
health care system
Covid-19
SIR model
logistic model
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín
Niepelt, Dirk
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Bern, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Bern
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín
- Niepelt, Dirk
- University of Bern, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2020
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