Derived Measurement in Macroeconomics: Two Approaches for Measuring the NAIRU Considered

Arbeitspapier

This paper investigates two different procedures for the measurement of the NAIRU; one based on structural modeling while the other is a statisticai approach using Vector Auto Regression (VAR)-models. Both measurement procedures are assessed by confronting them with the dominant theory of measurement, the Representation Theory of Measurement, which states that for sound measurement a strict isomorphism (strict one-to-one mapping) is needed between variations in the phenomenon (the NAIRU) and numbers.The paper argues that shifts of the Phillips-curve are not a problem for the structural approach to measurement of the NAIRU, as the NAIRU itself is a time-varying concept. It is however, the impossibility to identify the exact shape of the Phillips-curve that causes problems of multiple empirical, relational forms and hence non-unique isomorphic mappings for measurement. While VAR-models are being accused of being ‘atheoretical macroeconometrics’ in the literature, the Wold decomposition theorem applied to the VAR brings out a stable correspondence between variance of the phenomenon (the NAIRU) and numbers and turns the set of equations into an isomorphic mapping that can serve as a useful foundation for the construction of a measuring instrument.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 07-017/1

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft
• Thema: NAIRU ; Phillips curve ; VAR-models ; Measurement in macroeconomics ; Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote ; Messung ; Phillips-Kurve ; VAR-Modell

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Rodenburg, Peter
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Tinbergen Institute
• (wo): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (wann): 2007

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/86584
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ