Artikel

Intraday conditional value at risk: A periodic mixed‐frequency generalized autoregressive score approach

We propose a copula-based periodic mixed frequency generalized autoregressive (GAS) framework in order to model and forecast the intraday exposure conditional value at risk (ECoVaR) for an intraday asset return and the corresponding market return. In particular, we analyze GAS models that account for long-memory-type of dependencies, periodicities, asymmetric nonlinear dependence structures, fat-tailed conditional return distributions, and intraday jump processes for asset returns. We apply our framework in order to analyze the ECoVaR forecasting performance for a large data set of intraday asset returns of the S&P500 index.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Journal: Journal of Forecasting ; ISSN: 1099-131X ; Volume: 40 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 5 ; Pages: 883-910 ; Hoboken, NJ: Wiley

Subject
CoVaR
dynamic copulas
intraday
systemic risk

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Gribisch, Bastian
Eckernkemper, Tobias
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Wiley
(where)
Hoboken, NJ
(when)
2021

DOI
doi:10.1002/for.2744
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Artikel

Associated

  • Gribisch, Bastian
  • Eckernkemper, Tobias
  • Wiley

Time of origin

  • 2021

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