Openness and growth in a historical perspective: a VECM approach

Arbeitspapier

Since Adam Smith, most economists have held the belief that trade fosters economic growth, although it has not been possible to establish a strong causal relationship. The results of growth regressions are, at best, mixed, and several historical studies have found a positive relationship between tariffs and economic growth in the nineteenth century. This paper adopts a different strategy. We look for cointegration between GDP per capita and openness for about thirty countries since 1830. About half return no cointegration – i.e. no relationship. The rest show mixed results, which change through time. An ordered probit model suggests that significantly positive relationships are more likely at low-to-middle income levels.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: EHES Working Papers in Economic History ; No. 118

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Subject: Openness ; growth ; VECM ; cointegration ; trade

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Federico, Giovanni ; Sharp, Paul ; Tena-Junguito, Antonio
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Historical Economics Society (EHES)
• (where): s.l.
• (when): 2017

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/247049
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET