Bayesian analysis of one‐inflated models for elusive population size estimation

Abstract: The identification and treatment of “one‐inflation” in estimating the size of an elusive population has received increasing attention in capture–recapture literature in recent years. The phenomenon occurs when the number of units captured exactly once clearly exceeds the expectation under a baseline count distribution. Ignoring one‐inflation has serious consequences for estimation of the population size, which can be drastically overestimated. In this paper we propose a Bayesian approach for Poisson, geometric, and negative binomial one‐inflated count distributions. Posterior inference for population size will be obtained applying a Gibbs sampler approach. We also provide a Bayesian approach to model selection. We illustrate the proposed methodology with simulated and real data and propose a new application in official statistics to estimate the number of people implicated in the exploitation of prostitution in Italy.

Location
Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
Extent
Online-Ressource
Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Bayesian analysis of one‐inflated models for elusive population size estimation ; day:25 ; month:03 ; year:2022 ; extent:22
Biometrical journal ; (25.03.2022) (gesamt 22)

Creator
Tuoto, Tiziana
Di Cecco, Davide
Tancredi, Andrea

DOI
10.1002/bimj.202100187
URN
urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022032614405688195841
Rights
Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
Last update
15.08.2025, 7:39 AM CEST

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Associated

  • Tuoto, Tiziana
  • Di Cecco, Davide
  • Tancredi, Andrea

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