Arbeitspapier
Crude oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate: A forecasting exercise
If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has price setting capacity, (b) a high share of OPEC imports comes from the euro area and (c) alternatives to oil invoicing in US dollar are costly. We give evidence that using information on the US dollar/euro exchange rate (and its determinants) improves oil price forecasts significantly. We discuss possible implications that these results might suggest with regard to the stabilization of oil prices or the adjustment of global imbalances.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Papers in Economics and Statistics ; No. 2008-08
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Energy and the Macroeconomy
Foreign Exchange
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
oil price
exchange rate
forecasting
multivariate time series models
Ölpreis
Wechselkurs
US-Dollar
Euro
Prognose
Zeitreihenanalyse
Welt
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus
Breitenfellner, Andreas
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Innsbruck, Department of Public Finance
- (wo)
-
Innsbruck
- (wann)
-
2008
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
- 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus
- Breitenfellner, Andreas
- University of Innsbruck, Department of Public Finance
Entstanden
- 2008
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