Arbeitspapier
How Informative are the Unpredictable Components of Earnings Forecasts?
An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the unpredictable components, which may be viewed as the personal expertise of the earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track records, it is possible to predict the future track record of individual forecasters.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 15-032/III
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage; Ratings and Ratings Agencies
Accounting
- Subject
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Earnings Forecasts
Earnings Announcements
Financial Markets
Financial Analysts
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
de Bruijn, Bert
Franses, Philip Hans
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Tinbergen Institute
- (where)
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Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (when)
-
2015
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- de Bruijn, Bert
- Franses, Philip Hans
- Tinbergen Institute
Time of origin
- 2015
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Estimating the Effect of Personality on Male-Female Earnings