Hysteresis and Nairu in the Euro Area

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long-term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long-run non-superneutrality of monetary policy.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: IMK Working Paper ; No. 4/2005

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Monetary Policy
• Thema: Nairu ; hysteresis ; Kalman Filter ; Phillips curve ; superneutrality

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Logeay, Camille ; Tober, Silke
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK)
• (wo): Düsseldorf
• (wann): 2005

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105872
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2008081478
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ