Arbeitspapier
Regional growth in Central Europe: Long-term effects of population and traffic structure
In a simple growth model we explore the current and future growth effects of the regional population structure. Regional GDP growth in 227 regions within six countries in central Europe is explored as how they depend on the young and old dependency ratio. The young dependency ratio (YDR) is defined as ratio of the less than 20 years old and the old dependency ratio (ODR) as the more than 60 years old divided by the total population. We found a medium sized negative correlation of these ratios on regional growth and the long-term forecasts for the year 2020 are for most regions rather negative if only the population structure is considered. Similar scenarios can be also obtained for employment and population growth. The long-term forecasts improve if traffic accessibilities and dynamic interactions are introduced into the model.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Reihe Ökonomie / Economics Series ; No. 172
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
- Thema
-
panel data
Simpson paradox
GDP
employment and population growth
long-term forecasts
Regionale Bevölkerungsentwicklung
Bevölkerungsstruktur
Wirtschaftswachstum
Prognose
Österreich
Ungarn
Slowakei
Polen
Tschechische Republik
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Polasek, Wolfgang
Berrer, Helmut
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)
- (wo)
-
Vienna
- (wann)
-
2005
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Polasek, Wolfgang
- Berrer, Helmut
- Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)
Entstanden
- 2005
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