Bericht
Output gaps and cyclical indicators: Finnish evidence
The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical indicators. This methodology produces an output gap that is similar to the ones obtained from the main methods used at the Bank of Finland and the European Commission, but requiring considerably less modelling effort. The method is also flexible and can readily be adopted to internalize additional information that captures special circumstances, such as the current pandemic. In this spirit, we extend our information set to include a service turnover indicator, and find that it clearly improves the method's ability to capture the exceptional downturn in 2020.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: BoF Economics Review ; No. 6/2021
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Classification Methods; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Models
- Thema
-
cyclical indicators
output gap
potential output
principal component analysis
service turnover
COVID-19
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Pönkä, Harri
Sariola, Mikko
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Finland
- (wo)
-
Helsinki
- (wann)
-
2021
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:fi:bof-202110012043
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Bericht
Beteiligte
- Pönkä, Harri
- Sariola, Mikko
- Bank of Finland
Entstanden
- 2021
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