Arbeitspapier
Nowcasting GDP in Argentina: Comparing the predictive ability of different models
Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a broad and restricted set of indicators to construct different models including dynamic factor models as well as a FAVAR. We compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in predictive ability among them. Nevertheless a combination of them proves to significantly improve predictive performance.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Economic Research Working Papers ; No. 74
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Nowcasting
dynamic factor models
forecast pooling
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Blanco, Emilio
D'Amato, Laura
Dogliolo, Fiorella
Garegnani, María Lorena
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
- (wo)
-
Buenos Aires
- (wann)
-
2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Blanco, Emilio
- D'Amato, Laura
- Dogliolo, Fiorella
- Garegnani, María Lorena
- Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
Entstanden
- 2017
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