Arbeitspapier
Do daily lead texts help nowcasting GDP growth?
This paper evaluates whether publicly available daily news lead texts help nowcasting Swiss GDP growth. I collect titles and lead texts from three Swiss newspapers and calculate text-based indicators for various economic concepts. A composite indicator calculated from these indicators is highly correlated with low-frequency macroeconomic data and survey-based indicators. In a pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting exercise for Swiss GDP growth, the indicator outperforms a monthly Swiss business cycle indicator if one month of information is available. Improvements in nowcasting accuracy mainly occur in times of economic distress.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IRENE Working Paper ; No. 23-02
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Mixed-frequency data
composite leading indicator
news sentiment
recession
natural language processing
nowcasting
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Burri, Marc
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Neuchâtel, Institute of Economic Research (IRENE)
- (wo)
-
Neuchâtel
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Burri, Marc
- University of Neuchâtel, Institute of Economic Research (IRENE)
Entstanden
- 2023
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