Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

Arbeitspapier

This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been proposed in the literature. However, by combining measures from a number of different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and new measures for assessing future tightness of energy demand and expected oil price pressures.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8282

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Bayesian Analysis: General ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices ; Energy Forecasting
• Subject: energy demand ; forecasting ; stochastic volatility ; oil price pressures ; petroleum consumption

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Baumeister, Christiane ; Korobilis, Dimitris ; Lee, Thomas K.
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/217033
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET