Artikel
In-sample hazard forecasting based on survival models with operational time
We introduce a generalization of the one-dimensional accelerated failure time model allowing the covariate effect to be any positive function of the covariate. This function and the baseline hazard rate are estimated nonparametrically via an iterative algorithm. In an application in non-life reserving, the survival time models the settlement delay of a claim and the covariate effect is often called operational time. The accident date of a claim serves as covariate. The estimated hazard rate is a nonparametric continuous-time alternative to chain-ladder development factors in reserving and is used to forecast outstanding liabilities. Hence, we provide an extension of the chain-ladder framework for claim numbers without the assumption of independence between settlement delay and accident date. Our proposed algorithm is an unsupervised learning approach to reserving that detects operational time in the data and adjusts for it in the estimation process. Advantages of the new estimation method are illustrated in a data set consisting of paid claims from a motor insurance business line on which we forecast the number of outstanding claims.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: Risks ; ISSN: 2227-9091 ; Volume: 8 ; Year: 2020 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 1-17 ; Basel: MDPI
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
- Subject
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accelerated failure time model
chain-ladder method
local linear kernel estimation
non-life reserving
operational time
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Bischofberger, Stephan M.
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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MDPI
- (where)
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Basel
- (when)
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2020
- DOI
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doi:10.3390/risks8010003
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Bischofberger, Stephan M.
- MDPI
Time of origin
- 2020
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