Arbeitspapier
Persistent Overconfidence and Biased Memory: Evidence from Managers
A long-standing puzzle is how overconfidence can persist in settings characterized by repeated feedback. This paper studies managers who participate repeatedly in a high-powered tournament incentive system, learning relative performance each time. Using reduced form and structural methods we find that: (i) managers make overconfident predictions about future performance; (ii) managers have overly-positive memories of past performance; (iii) the two phenomena are linked at an individual level. Our results are consistent with models of motivated beliefs in which individuals are motivated to distort memories of feedback and preserve unrealistic expectations.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 16283
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Compensation Packages; Payment Methods
Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce
Personnel Economics: Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects
Personnel Economics: Labor Management
- Thema
-
overconfidence
memory
tournament
motivated beliefs
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Huffman, David B.
Raymond, Collin
Shvets, Julia
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
- (wo)
-
Bonn
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Huffman, David B.
- Raymond, Collin
- Shvets, Julia
- Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
Entstanden
- 2023
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