Arbeitspapier

Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results

This survey features three parts. The first one covers the recent literature on domestic (i.e., country-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part proposes a novel measure of global financial uncertainty and shows that its unexpected variations are associated to statistically and economically fluctuations of the world business cycle.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 7900

Classification
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Subject
uncertainty
uncertainty shocks
spillovers
global financial uncertainty
world business cycle

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Castelnuovo, Efrem
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(where)
Munich
(when)
2019

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

  • 2019

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