A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850 - 2011

Artikel

This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others-this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Journal: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association ; ISSN: 1869-4195 ; Volume: 4 ; Year: 2013 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 1-34 ; Heidelberg: Springer

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General ; Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
• Subject: business cycle ; correct classification frontier ; area under the curve

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Berge, Travis J. ; Jordà, Òscar
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Springer
• (where): Heidelberg
• (when): 2013

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/77798
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET