Arbeitspapier

Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive risk-return trade-off holds in the second regime. The first regime is interpreted as a flight-to-quality regime.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Bank of Canada Working Paper ; No. 2013-51

Classification
Wirtschaft
General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Subject
Economic and statistical models
Financial markets

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Ghysels, Eric
Guérin, Pierre
Marcellino, Massimiliano
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Bank of Canada
(where)
Ottawa
(when)
2013

DOI
doi:10.34989/swp-2013-51
Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Ghysels, Eric
  • Guérin, Pierre
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Bank of Canada

Time of origin

  • 2013

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