How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates

Arbeitspapier

The paper illustrates based on an example the importance of consistency between the empirical measurement and the concept of variables in estimated macroeconomic models. Since standard New Keynesian models do not account for demographic trends and sectoral shifts, the authors proposes adjusting hours worked per capita used to estimate such models accordingly to enhance the consistency between the data and the model. Without this adjustment, low frequency shifts in hours lead to unreasonable trends in the output gap, caused by the close link between hours and the output gap in such models. The retirement wave of baby boomers, for example, lowers U.S. aggregate hours per capita, which leads to erroneous permanently negative output gap estimates following the Great Recession. After correcting hours for changes in the age composition, the estimated output gap closes gradually instead following the years after the Great Recession.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IMFS Working Paper Series ; No. 121

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Quantitative Policy Modeling ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• Subject: low frequency trends ; demographic trends ; hours per capita measurement ; output gap estimates ; DSGE models ; Bayesian estimation

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Wolters, Maik Hendrik
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2018

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/176992
• URN: urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-475955
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET