Arbeitspapier
Seven Pitfalls of Technical Analysis
This paper examines the main drawbacks of technical analysis. Although this is widely used by practitioners, from an academic perspective it can only be seen as a form of "voodoo finance". In particular, it runs into the following pitfalls: Subjectivity; Doubtful assumptions; Unjustified algorithms; Low profitability; Data snooping; Statistically insignificant results; Unrealistic simplifications. The key conclusion is that it is high time that (self-fulfilling) technical analysis be replaced by more sophisticated time-series forecasting methods and models such as fractional integration, R/S analysis and autoregressive specifications .
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10213
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
Expectations; Speculations
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- Thema
-
technical analysis
data snooping
financial markets
price forecasting
trading
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
Plastun, Alex
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
- Plastun, Alex
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2023
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