A Note on Temporary Supply Shocks with Aggregate Demand Inertia

Arbeitspapier

We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output gaps expected to emerge once supply recovers. However, the policy does not remain loose throughout the low-supply phase: The central bank undoes the initial interest rate cuts once aggregate demand gains momentum. If inflation also has inertia, the central bank still overheats the economy during the low-supply phase but gradually cools it down over time.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 9603

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; Monetary Policy ; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
• Subject: monetary policy ; interest rates ; temporary supply shocks ; aggregate demand inertia ; inflation ; Taylor rule ; divine coincidence ; policy frontloading ; momentum ; output and inflation gaps ; the Phillips curve ; Covid-19

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Caballero, Ricardo J. ; Simsek, Alp
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2022

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/252120
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET