Artikel
Peer effects on the United States Supreme Court
Using data on essentially every U.S. Supreme Court decision since 1946, we estimate a model of peer effects on the Court. We estimate the impact of justice ideology and justice votes on the votes of their peers. To identify the peer effects, we use two instruments that generate plausibly exogenous variation in the peer group itself, or in the votes of peers. The first instrument utilizes the fact that the composition of the Court varies from case to case due to recusals or absences for health reasons. The second utilizes the fact that many justices previously sat on Federal Circuit Courts, and justices are generally much less likely to overturn decisions in cases sourced from their former "home" court. We find large peer effects. For example, we can use our model to predict the impact of replacing Justice Ginsburg with Justice Barrett. Under the the assumption that Justice Barrett's ideological position aligns closely with Justice Scalia, for whom she clerked, we predict that her influence on the Court will increase the Conservative vote propensity of the other justices by 4.7 percentage points. That translates into 0.38 extra conservative votes per case on top of the impact of her own vote. In general, we find indirect effects are large relative to the direct mechanical effect of a justice's own vote.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Journal: Quantitative Economics ; ISSN: 1759-7331 ; Volume: 12 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 3 ; Pages: 981-1019 ; New Haven, CT: The Econometric Society
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior: General
- Thema
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Peer effects
political economy
Supreme Court
voting
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Holden, Richard
Keane, Michael P.
Lilley, Matthew
- Ereignis
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Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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The Econometric Society
- (wo)
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New Haven, CT
- (wann)
-
2021
- DOI
-
doi:10.3982/QE1296
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Holden, Richard
- Keane, Michael P.
- Lilley, Matthew
- The Econometric Society
Entstanden
- 2021
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