Arbeitspapier
The role of expectations in sudden stops
This paper presents a flexible-price small open economy model with a peso problem in productivity states. Agents rationally adjust their beliefs about future productivity growth after the arrival of news. A downward revision of expectations triggers a Sudden Stop, together with large declines in GDP, employment, consumption and investment. There need not be any actual change in productivity growth to generate large fluctuations. Quantitatively, the model goes a long way in matching the 1998 Korean Crisis and subsequent swift recovery.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CAE Working Paper ; No. 07-10
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
sudden stops
small open economy
expectations
peso problem
Produktivität
Kapitalimport
Kleines-offenes-Land
Erwartungstheorie
Theorie
Südkorea
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Mertens, Karel
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Cornell University, Center for Analytical Economics (CAE)
- (wo)
-
Ithaca, NY
- (wann)
-
2007
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Mertens, Karel
- Cornell University, Center for Analytical Economics (CAE)
Entstanden
- 2007
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