Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?

Arbeitspapier

There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil to the international markets? In this study, we analyze the dynamic relationship between the Iranian oil supply and international oil prices from January 1973 - September 2011, using a modified version of the Granger causality test introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Our results show that there is no Granger causality between the Iranian oil production and international oil prices. Historical data on the Iranian oil production do not provide any useful information to explain the current and future values of international oil prices. Thus, global oil prices do not follow shocks in the Iranian oil production.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics ; No. 32-2012

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development ; Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts ; Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy ; Energy and the Macroeconomy
• Thema: Oil price ; Oil production ; VAR model ; Granger causality ; Sanction ; Iran ; Ölpreis ; Mineralölpreisschock ; Kausalanalyse ; Schätzung ; Welt ; Erdölförderung ; Mineralölwirtschaft ; Iran

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Philipps-University Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
• (wo): Marburg
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73095
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ