Arbeitspapier
Crowdsourcing of Economic Forecast – Combination of Forecasts Using Bayesian Model Averaging
Economic forecasts are quite essential in our daily lives, which is why many research institutions periodically make and publish forecasts of main economic indicators. We ask (1) whether we can consistently have a better prediction when we combine multiple forecasts of the same variable and (2) if we can, what will be the optimal method of combination. We linearly combine multiple linear combinations of existing forecasts to form a new forecast ('combination of combinations'), and the weights are given by Bayesian model averaging. In the case of forecasts on Germany's real GDP growth rate, this new forecast dominates any single forecast in terms of root-mean-square prediction errors.
- ISBN
-
978-3-86788-624-6
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Ruhr Economic Papers ; No. 546
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Combination of forecasts
Bayesian model averaging
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Kim, Dongkoo
Rhee, Tae-hwan
Ryu, Keunkwan
Shin, Changmock
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
- (wo)
-
Essen
- (wann)
-
2015
- DOI
-
doi:10.4419/86788624
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Kim, Dongkoo
- Rhee, Tae-hwan
- Ryu, Keunkwan
- Shin, Changmock
- Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
Entstanden
- 2015
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