Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Abstract ∘  N, 119–123∘  W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 ∘ C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 ∘ C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 ∘ C of global warming (0.8 ∘ C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021 ; volume:13 ; number:4 ; year:2022 ; pages:1689-1713 ; extent:25 ; Earth System Dynamics ; 13, Heft 4 (2022), 1689-1713 (gesamt 25)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Philip, Sjoukje Y. ; Kew, Sarah F. ; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van ; Anslow, Faron S. ; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ; Vautard, Robert ; Coumou, Dim ; Ebi, Kristie L. ; Arrighi, Julie ; Singh, Roop ; Van Aalst, Maarten ; Pereira Marghidan, Carolina ; Wehner, Michael ; Yang, Wenchang ; Li, Sihan ; Schumacher, Dominik L. ; Hauser, Mathias ; Bonnet, Rémy ; Luu, Linh N. ; Lehner, Flavio ; Gillett, Nathan ; Tradowsky, Jordis S. ; Vecchi, Gabriel A. ; Rodell, Chris ; Stull, Roland B. ; Howard, Rosie ; Otto, Friederike E. L.

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022121504395526058845
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:29 AM CEST