El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates

Abstract CO 2 forcing from seven general circulation models. Comparing the warmer climate to control simulations, ENSO variability weakens, with the neutral state lasting longer, while active ENSO states last shorter and skew to favor the La Niña state. The 6-month persistence-assessed ENSO predictability slightly reduces in five models and increases in two models under the warming condition. While the overall changes in ENSO predictability are insignificant, we find significant relationships between changes in predictability and intensity, duration, and skewness of the three individual ENSO states. The maximal contribution to changes in the predictability of El Niño, La Niña and neutral states stems from changes in skewness and events' duration. Our findings show that a robust and significant decrease in ENSO characteristics does not imply a similar change in ENSO predictability in a warmer climate. This could be due to model deficiencies in ENSO dynamics and limitations in the persistence model when predicting ENSO.

Object Details

• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates ; volume:13 ; number:4 ; year:2022 ; pages:1611-1623 ; extent:13 ; Earth System Dynamics ; 13, Heft 4 (2022), 1611-1623 (gesamt 13)

Contributors, Places and Time

• Creator: Zheng, Yiyu ; Rugenstein, Maria ; Pieper, Patrick ; Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz ; Baehr, Johanna

Further information

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2022112404390003408243
• Rights: Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 15.08.2025, 7:23 AM CEST