Anticipated and unanticipated oil price shocks and optimal monetary policy

Arbeitspapier

This paper studies the welfare effects of severalmonetary policy rules in the presence of anticipated and unanticipated oil price shocks. Our analysis is based on a stylized New Keynesian model of a small open economy. Our main findings are the following: i) Standard interest rate rules amplify the welfare loss compared to neutral monetary policies. ii) The optimal policy under commitment, by contrast, dampens the welfare loss. iii) Optimized simple rules can replicate the outcome under the optimal unrestricted rule if they are history-dependent, contain the exchange rate and, in the anticipated case, forward-looking elements. iv) Anticipated oil shocks lead to a higher welfare loss than unanticipated shocks.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Economics Working Paper ; No. 2008-05

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; Open Economy Macroeconomics
• Thema: Anticipated Shocks ; Oil Price Shocks ; Open Economy ; Optimal Monetary Policy ; Simple Policy Rules ; Geldpolitik ; Mineralölpreisschock ; Erwartungstheorie ; Wohlfahrtseffekt ; Ungleichgewichtstheorie ; Kleines-offenes-Land ; Theorie

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Wohltmann, Hans-Werner ; Winkler, Roland C.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Kiel University, Department of Economics
• (wo): Kiel
• (wann): 2008

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/22053
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ