Arbeitspapier
Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, job, or attitude?
This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at monthly frequency. The forecasters in our sample do not provide feasible self-ratings compared to their true performance but show overconfidence on average. In analyzing this, we find an easing relation to experience. Job characteristics are also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent forecasting success comes along with more overconfidence.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Diskussionsbeitrag ; No. 428
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Foreign Exchange
- Subject
-
overconfidence
self-rating
forecasting
foreign exchange
better-thanaverage
experience
performance
Finanzanalysten
Prognose
Anlageverhalten
Persönlichkeitspsychologie
Deutschland
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Gloede, Oliver
Menkhoff, Lukas
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
- (where)
-
Hannover
- (when)
-
2009
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Gloede, Oliver
- Menkhoff, Lukas
- Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
Time of origin
- 2009
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