Arbeitspapier
Phillips curves in the euro area
We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and structural changes. Using Dynamic Model Averaging, we identify the most important determinants of inflation over the sample. We then forecast core inflation 12 quarters ahead and present its probability distribution. We compare the distribution of forecasts performed in recent years, and we assess, in a probabilistic manner, the convergence towards a sustainable path of inflation.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-3557-9
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2295
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables: General
Monetary Policy
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
Phillips curves
Dynamic Model Averaging
non linearities
structural changes
density forecast
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Moretti, Laura
Onorante, Luca
Saber, Shayan Zakipour
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2019
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/221205
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Moretti, Laura
- Onorante, Luca
- Saber, Shayan Zakipour
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2019
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Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants
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Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area
Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves
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Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants
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How do Beveridge and Phillips curves in the euro area behave under the stress of the world economic crisis?